CHICAGO – The small equity-research shop Citrini recently sent a panic through financial markets when it outlined a scenario in which artificial intelligence (AI) ends most white-collar employment by 2028, with dire consequences for the broader economy. But this forecast is surely too pessimistic in some respects. Outside a few sectors, like software, frictions to adoption and sheer inertia will probably slow the pace of change. This has always been the case. For example, although automated telephone exchanges were possible in the 1920s, the last human telephone operator in the United States was not replaced until the 1980s. Moreover, the technology itself is always only one variable. There also must be processes and structures around it to assure customers of reliable service. This is where incumbents have an advantage over challengers, even if they do not use the latest technology. And even if incumbents are displaced, the new opportunities created by AI-induced cost reductions and productivity enhancements need not lead only to more AI. They may also require the work of humans –
