In the US, high inflation should have passed its zenith, as experts from Helaba and Commerzbank expect. In Germany, ZEW economic expectations are also likely to stabilize, albeit at a low level.
“A little more optimism could therefore spread again on the financial markets,” hopes Helaba expert Christian Apelt. For some stock indices, this is also absolutely necessary after the recent setbacks, “otherwise there is a threat of new cyclical lows”. The Dax, for example, which was still hovering around the psychologically important mark of 14,000 points in the last week of April, had once again turned down on the 21- and 50-day lines before the weekend. They are considered chart technical indicators for the short- and medium-term trend of the stock market barometer.
Putin’s war and China’s anti-corona course are weighing on the markets
At the same time, however, Putin’s war against Ukraine and the consequences of it continue to cause investors great concern. In addition, the increasingly negative impact of China’s zero Covid policy on the global economy is depressing sentiment.
And the rejection of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to an interest rate hike of 0.75 percentage points, which had initially provided relief on the stock exchanges and losses on the bond market, is now so unsettling that the picture has “completely turned”, as Apelt also writes.
“Especially after the Fed meeting last Wednesday, the topic of inflation dynamics has been given a higher priority by market participants,” says market expert Andreas Lipkow from Comdirect. Because the yields of US government bonds and German government bonds rose strongly in a week-on-week comparison, stocks fell and the euro-dollar price is again close to a multi-year low.
Dax corporations in the reporting season
Quarterly balance sheets are due in the new week on Monday from the semiconductor manufacturer Infineon, whose growth rate is likely to have slowed in the second fiscal quarter. On the same day, there is also a nervous look in the direction of Russia, because there are the annual celebrations for the “Victory Day” in the Second World War.
“Despite some speculations, Vladimir Putin will not announce a dramatic change of course – in whatever direction –”, however, Apelt believes from Helaba with regard to the developments in the Ukraine war, which has been raging for almost three months now.
With Bayer and Munich Re on Tuesday and in the further course of the week with the utilities Eon and RWE, the insurer Allianz and Deutsche Telekom, numerous other exciting reports from the first stock exchange league are still pending.
The pharmaceutical and agrochemicals group Bayer is likely to have had a strong start to the year, and this is also expected by RWE and Deutsche Telekom, among others. The latter, according to JPMorgan analyst Akhil Dattani, is largely shielded from macroeconomic shocks, should have grown broadly and benefit from the recent dollar strength.
News agencies dpa-AFX and Reuters